Elections Underway in the Netherlands as Polls Suggest Potential Repeat Victory for Geert Wilders

The polls are open for general elections in Holland, with current polling data indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again emerge victorious, though experts suggest the party stands little chance of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and formed a multi-party all-conservative coalition that lasted barely a year, is currently slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-member parliament.

However, PVV's popularity has dipped since 2023, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with the PVV leader, and who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in the summer over a dispute concerning his radical immigration plans.

Key Contenders and Projections

At the end of a election period dominated by issues such as migration, healthcare costs, and the nation's acute housing crisis, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, expected to gain between 22 and 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist D66, predicted to boost its representation by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is expected to more than double its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the PVV, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to lose seats, with some facing heavy losses.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the proportional Dutch system, securing just 0.67% of the national vote yields a party one MP. Of the 27 parties contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, for animals, basic income advocates, and for sport – as many as 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This high degree of fragmentation ensures that no one party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – typically composed of several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the PVV ends up as the largest party yet is excluded from power. However, critics and analysts say that first place does not guarantee government participation and that any governing alliance with a majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the final outcome is hard to predict and coalition talks could take months, analysts suggest that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a inclusive alliance led by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, opened at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm. A usually accurate exit poll is expected soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will explore potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in parliament. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before taking office.